Counter Insurgency Blog

EXCERPT: “The vanguard of the 30,000 US troop surge to Afghanistan will arrive this week to fight a war increasingly linked to Al-Qaeda and extremists in Pakistan, the top US military(ACCP) officer said Monday.

Admiral Mike Mullen flew into Afghanistan for talks on President Barack Obama’s sweeping new war strategy seeking to turn around the eight-year Taliban insurgency, deny Al-Qaeda a safe haven and train Afghan forces. ‘The key part of that strategy was the decision to surge an additional 30,000 United States troops in Afghanistan,’ Mullen told reporters. ‘Marines from Camp Lejeune will arrive this very week,’ he added, referring to the largest US Marine Corps base on the US east coast.

A 1,500-strong Marine contingent is expected to arrive this week in southern Helmand, one of the worst battlefields, as part of a vanguard set to prepare the logistics for thousands more due in the coming months.”

Nonaligned India was perceived by most analysts to be largely in the Soviet camp during the Cold War. But the demise of the Soviet Union prompted India to recalibrate its relationship with the world’s only remaining superpower: the United States.

Another major factor assisting in this realignment was India’s embrace since the early 1990’s of free market reforms, trade liberalization and privatization measures. These changes opened up the vast Indian market to U.S. exporters and foreign investors. While millions of Indians are still desperately poor, around 300 million Indians have joined the middle class. Thus a new and expanding Indian market is opening up for a wide variety of U.S. exports, and U.S. investment in Indian industry and infrastructure has risen appreciably in the last few decades.

As a rising regional power, India is anxious to be recognized as a major player not only in South Asia but on the international stage. The importance of India to the U.S. was highlighted by the choice of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as the first foreign dignitary to be accorded the honor of a state visit.

A major impediment retarding India’s quest towards great power status is its perennial dispute with neighboring Pakistan over Kashmir. The two oldest conflicts on the agenda of the UN Security Council from the late 1940’s are the Arab-Israeli and Kashmir conflicts.

Despite a number of diplomatic meetings spread over five decades, India and Pakistan have yet to overcome the hurdle of Kashmir, over which they have fought three wars. For Pakistan, Kashmir remains the unfinished agenda of the 1947 Partition. For secular multicultural India, Kashmir is a symbol of its heterogeneity.

President Obama has publicly stated that the U.S. would help India and Pakistan to normalize their relations, including the dispute over Kashmir. The U.S. can help both countries. If the U.S. can persuade India to withdraw some of its forces on its border with Pakistan, this gesture would enable the latter to commit more of its troops now facing India to its lawless tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

While the Pakistan army has achieved encouraging gains against the Pakistani Taliban in Swat and South Waziristan, its counterinsurgency efforts need to achieve more success. Once the tribal areas are pacified, they will no longer afford a sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda elements that cross the mountainous and porous Pakistan-Afghanistan border at will, to attack U.S. and NATO troops fighting the Taliban insurgents.

So it is patently in the U.S. interest to invest more diplomatic capital in New Delhi and Islamabad. India and Pakistan have both suffered from violent extremism. They continue to be plagued by domestic insurgencies. Whether they admit it or not, they have a shared interest in combating the ravages of terrorism in their territories.

As the U.S. footprint in both Pakistan and India assumes greater depth, hopefully the U.S. will nudge both countries to consistently focus on a resolution of the Kashmir imbroglio. A mutually acceptable settlement of this issue should be placed on the same pedestal as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in U.S. calculations.

- S. Azmat Hassan
The dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir has been ongoing since the 1940’s and impacts security throughout the region. Worldfocus contributing blogger S.Azmat Hassan argues that settling the conflict there should be as urgent a foreign policy goal for the United States as working towards peace in the Middle East.
http://worldfocus.org/files/2009/12/th_india_kashmirsoldier.jpg”

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US Tries New Tack Against Taliban – Anand Gopal, Wall Street Journal.

The US-led coalition and the Afghan government are launching an initiative to persuade Taliban insurgents to lay down their weapons, offering jobs and protection to the militants who choose to abandon their fight. While President Hamid Karzai’s government has been trying to woo these insurgents for years, the new program marks the first time that the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces are systematically reaching out to Taliban fighters. The tactic comes as the US prepares to announce Tuesday how many additional troops it will send to Afghanistan as part of a new strategy aimed at bringing the eight-year war to a successful end. US officials also hope America’s European allies will raise their troop contributions as part of the new push.

The Afghan government has had a reconciliation program in place since 2004, and claims to have turned more than 8,000 insurgents. That program, however, is widely derided as corrupt and ineffective. Insurgents were enticed with offers of jobs but rarely received the promised assistance, leading many to rejoin the fight. Western officials behind the new reconciliation program say they believe the majority of insurgents are fighting for money – the Taliban often pay their members – or personal grievances. Luring such men from the battlefield is a central component of America’s new counterinsurgency strategy crafted by US Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top allied commander here…

Afghanistan hikes police salaries (AP via Yahoo! News): “Afghanistan is hiking police salaries by between 33 and 67 percent, the Interior Ministry said Wednesday, to curb rampant corruption and boost recruitment in a force that suffers much higher casualty rates than the insurgency-wracked country’s army.”

DIIG Current Issues No. 16: Contracting for Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan: ”

The U.S. government has spent $153B in 2008 dollars on contracts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and their neighborhoods since fiscal year (FY) 2001, according to the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). In June 2009, 194,000 contractors were working for the U.S. government in Iraq and Afghanistan, compared to 190,000 U.S. troops. At least 1,200 contractors have been killed in the two wars.

FORT IRWIN, Ca: When the National Training Center opened here in 1981, it presented the most realistic training environment imaginable to prepare troops for a potential large-scale, tank-on-tank confrontation with the Soviet Union in Germany’s Fulda Gap.

After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, NTC transformed dramatically to train deploying warfighters for the fight against terrorists and insurgent groups in Iraq, and to a lesser degree, Afghanistan. The Joint Readiness Training Center at Fort Polk, La., conducts most Afghanistan-based mission rehearsal exercises.

Today, as the military begins drawing down in Iraq, the NTC cadre is looking ahead to what they believe will be this sweeping training center’s future role. Instead of preparing troops for either conventional or irregular warfare, they expect to train them to face “hybrid threats” that include both ends of the spectrum and everything in between.

That will require another major transformation at NTC, a post larger than Rhode Island deep within the Mojave Desert.

NTC long ago shed its Cold War focus, with a permanent opposing force that used Warsaw Pact tactics, dressed in Soviet-type uniforms and navigated the training grounds in Vietnam-era M-551 Sheridan tanks modified to look like the T-72 and BMP tanks.

The focus turned to counterinsurgency operations required in Iraq and Afghanistan. Troops deploying to the combat theater were trained in mounted and dismounted patrols, cordon-and-search missions, searches for weapons and high-value targets, bilateral talks with Iraqi officials and infrastructure missions. They also learned how to detect the enemy’s weapon of choice: improvised explosive devices.

As Iraqi security forces increasingly took the lead in security operations, the NTC cadre began training the new “advise and assist” brigades deploying to support them.

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U.N. moves 600 foreign staffers in Afghanistan (New Haven Register): “Associated Press KABUL — The United Nations is sending about 600 foreign staff out of the country or into secure compounds because of the deadly Taliban attack on U.N. workers, warning the Afghan government Thursday that international support will wane unless it cracks down on corruption fueling the insurgency.”

Obama nearing decision to send more troops to Afghanistan: “The Army’s counterinsurgency manual estimates that an all-out counterinsurgency campaign in a country with Afghanistan’s population would require about …

Anti-terrorism training school to be opened in MP (New Kerala): “Shivpuri, MP, Nov 5 : In a bid to counter terrorism and insurgency, a training school for security officials and jawans was in the offing here.”

The Problem With Training Afghan Troops (Time Magazine): “Our troops have become excellent at building security and civil society in Afghan communities, but if the Afghans aren’t able to sustain the institutions we initiate, we’re building sand castles”

Saudi jets pound al-Houthi strongholds (UPI): “SANAA, Yemen, Nov. 6 (UPI) — Saudi forces reportedly bombed al-Houthi rebel strongholds along the shared border with Yemen in a sign of an escalating fight against a growing insurgency.”

Pak Committee calls for escalating India’s involvement in domestic insurgency to UN (Calcutta News): “Islamabad, Nov.4 : Pakistan Parliament’s National Security Committee has asked the government to rake up the issue of India’s involvement in fanning insurgency inside the country at all national and international forums, including the United Nations (UN).”

So far the wars of the 21st Century have revolved around insurgencies with nameless, faceless and often fearless fighters bombing, shooting and beheading with little care for their own lives.

Afghanistan and Pakistan show how difficult and expensive these insurgencies are to counter and how disruptive and divisive they can be even with ill-defined, non-specific objectives.

Thailand seems about as far from the Taliban as you can get, yet just a short distance from its golden tourist beaches and paradise islands, an insurgency has been raging for five years.

Someone is killed on average every day in the provinces on the country’s southern border with Malaysia, where a shadowy group of Islamist extremists are stirring up a deepening sectarian divide.

In just five years 3,800 people have been killed and more than 6,000 injured. But what they want is not totally clear and no group has ever publically admitted they carried out an attack.

They have no links to al-Qaeda and few ties to foreign organisations except perhaps a few cash donations to keep the Islamic extremist message of violence going.

Tens of thousands of troops have been deployed, and now civilians appear to be encouraged to take the law into their own hands.

Divided communities

At the local Buddhist temple at Trohgen village in Pattani province a class is being held for a group of mostly female community volunteers – but this is no religious ceremony.

It is a refresher course to remind them how to clean, maintain and use the shotguns they have been given by the government for their own protection.

“It’s getting more violent every day,” said Monthira Peng-Iad, a 40-year-old farmer.

“So many of my relatives have been shot and killed I feel bitter inside. I want to know how to shoot, so I can help people in the village.”

In a community in which Muslims and Buddhists used to live side-by-side in peace, her rhetoric shows how divisive the insurgency has been.

“It’s time to fight otherwise all the Thai Buddhists will be killed. We used to be friends and relatives but now we are divided. Now they see all of us as enemies. They kill us.”

Civilians targeted

One human rights group says up to a hundred thousand civilian Buddhists and Muslims have been given guns to “protect” themselves in the three southern provinces of Thailand, but this is a figure the military denies.

However many guns there are, the violence doesn’t appear to be abating.

At al-Furquan mosque in Ai Payae village, Narathiwat province, there are more armed men on guard outside than there are inside for afternoon prayers.

The group of 18 Muslim men were armed by the government but did not appear particularly well-drilled in weapons safety.

They were brought in after an attack on the mosque in June when gunmen opened fire killing ten people and injured 12.

Ayu Jeh-Ngoh was shot twice, once in the back and once in the leg as he prayed. He suspects the attackers were from a nearby Buddhist village, taking revenge after a Buddhist was killed in the area.

Others in the area suspect a similar thing, but nobody has been charged with the attack and they said the investigation did not appear to be going anywhere.

The victims are often civilians, especially teachers, who in the most dangerous areas travel to school on motorbikes in groups with armed soldiers as outriders to protect them.

Sukhon Deangchot teaches at a school which has already been bombed once.

“We’re really worried about our security when going to work. I’ve no idea who is targeting us,” she said.

Hearts and minds

Tens of thousands of troops are still struggling to contain the violence.

Thousands of auxiliaries have been trained and civilians have been armed or given radios and drafted in as spies on neighbourhood watch.

Lt Gen Kasikorn Keereesri is the Combined Task Force commander. He is trying all sorts of counter-insurgency tactics to win people over and isolate the bombers.

“The number of incidents is decreasing, but every time something happens it is more violent and it causes more damage,” he said.

“The insurgents have started to attack more in big cities now using car bombs which cause more damage inside the city.

“Our strategy is that we have to control the insurgents’ freedom of movement in the villages. We have to win the hearts and minds of villagers and make them side with us.”

It is a similar challenge facing American and Nato troops in Afghanistan and it is far from easy, even with their huge resources.

Farming courses are run to help poorer people and money is spent on other projects, but there have been human rights abuses carried out by some members of the security forces – something the general accepts has not helped, but says is now being addressed.

Both sides are being dragged into the division and instability which the insurgency brings.

“My house was burned down, my husband was shot dead, my daughter was shot and my son disappeared,” said Kuang Narumon, a 52-year-old Buddhist.

“We don’t trust each other now,” she said with a nervous, fixed smile. “We’re separate – not like we used to be.”

Afghanistan: Can the U.S. Succeed with President Karzai? (Time Magazine): “Good governance in Afghanistan has been identified as the key to beating the Taliban, and few are expecting the re-elected President, Hamid Karzai, to deliver. But Karzai knows that his life may depend on keeping the U.S. involved”

Confronting the Hydra: Big Problems with Small Wars – Lieutenant Colonel Mark O’Neill, Lowy Institute.

Australia’s current role in Afghanistan is the latest experience in a long history of involvement in counterinsurgency conflicts or ‘small wars’. Such commitments may begin as wars of choice, but history suggests they can turn into wars of necessity, and their costs and political impact can be large. In this Lowy Institute Paper, Mark O’Neill charts the enduring nature of Australia’s problems with such wars. He concludes that, as a democratic middle power that chooses to wage counterinsurgency conflicts, Australia needs improved strategic policy approaches and capabilities to overcome a complex and many-headed threat.

As Iraq collapsed into sectarian fratricide, the primary victims were Iraqis. As combat rises in Afghanistan, Americans and other allied personnel are the primary targets. And the casualty toll is rising.

Reports the Washington Post:

More than 1,000 American troops have been wounded in battle over the past three months in Afghanistan, accounting for one-fourth of those injured in combat since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001.

The dramatic increase in amputees and other seriously injured service members comes as October marks the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Afghanistan.Expanded military operations, a near-doubling of the number of troops since the beginning of the year and a Taliban offensive that has included a proliferation of roadside bombings have led to the great increase in casualties. U.S. troops in Afghanistan are suffering wounds at a higher rate than those who were serving in Iraq when violence spiraled during the military “surge” two years ago. In mid-2007, 600 U.S. troops were wounded in Iraq each month out of about 150,000 troops deployed there. In Afghanistan, about 68,000 troops are currently installed, with about 350 wounded each month recently.
Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell acknowledged that the casualties in Afghanistan have surpassed Iraq surge proportions and noted that the violence in Afghanistan is directed more against U.S. and other coalition forces, whereas it was heavily sectarian in Iraq. “It shows you how we are the targets and how effectively they are targeting us,” Morrell said.

President Obama should ponder well the rising costs as he considers U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. First, what is Washington hoping to achieve, and are the benefits worth ever more American deaths and injuries? Second, whatever he thinks is the best strategy, are the American people likely to support it over the long term? There would be nothing more foolish than to escalate and plan for years of war only to be forced into a speedy and unplanned withdrawal as the public demanded an end to what it saw as a useless conflict.

Defending America should be the administration’s top priority. That means a strategy of counter-terrorism rather than counter-insurgency. However much we might want to transform Afghan society and government, we are not likely to be able to do so at reasonable cost in reasonable time. We should step back from the brink rather than take the plunge into the potentially bottomless Afghan abyss.

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Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy.

Topic include:

1) Why would ‘American officials’ expose their own intelligence source?

2) U.S.–India military cooperation: some rare good news in Asia.

Why would ‘American officials’ expose their own intelligence source?

On Oct. 27 the New York Times reported that Ahmed Wali Karzai, brother of President Hamid Karzai and a major power broker in Kandahar, was a paid intelligence asset of the Central Intelligence Agency. The Times’s sources for this allegation included “current and former American officials” including a former CIA officer and perhaps a senior U.S. military officer in Kabul. Ahmed Wali Karzai acknowledged aiding U.S. efforts but denied receiving any payments from the CIA.

The piece asserted that Karzai’s alleged connections to Afghanistan’s drug trade created deep frustrations with senior political and military officials in both the Obama and Bush administrations.

Did frustration and moral outrage with Karzai’s illicit activities lead U.S. officials to expose him as a paid CIA asset? It would certainly be understandable, for these officials may have a low opinion of him and perhaps by association his brother the president. But this collective outburst is folly and will make a nearly impossible task for the Americans in Afghanistan only that much harder to achieve.

The U.S. officials who exposed Karzai are likely hoping that with his status now public, he will no longer be useful to the CIA. Perhaps they are hoping that the CIA will be too embarrassed to continue paying him. As the New York Times piece discusses, some officials believe that if the U.S. really wants better governance in Afghanistan, it must begin by getting rid of types like him. They believe that for a population-centric counterinsurgency strategy to succeed, clean Afghan administration needs to occur concurrently, not later. By continuing to work with the president’s brother, the CIA was not cooperating with this view. Those objecting to the CIA’s alleged connection with Karzai appear to have used the New York Times in an attempt to resolve this interagency dispute.

read more »

By Adam Brookes
BBC News, Washington

The camera shows a group of Afghan soldiers standing on a cold dusty plain, listening to an American instructor. He is showing them how to use a new American rifle.

In many Afghan units, the old AK47s are being thrown away now. The new Afghan army will have new weapons: refurbished M16s.

The new weapons may be more powerful. In a firefight, they may give Afghan troops an edge over insurgents who use Soviet-era AKs.

But the new rifles are also unfamiliar. They require more maintenance, more care.

“Nepotism in the army is probably one of the things that hurt them the most”
Lt Alan Campbell

The camera shows the Afghan soldiers hunched against the wind, as the instructor talks them through the basics of the M16 rifle, through a Dari interpreter.

The film I am watching was shot by an American lieutenant: Alan Campbell, a US Army reservist in his late twenties. He trained Afghan troops for nine months.

His video is instructive. It exudes a sense of the colossal task facing American trainers as they try to assemble a modern fighting force in Afghanistan, one that can tackle the Taliban, defend the central government, and – one day – allow US, British and other Nato troops to go home.

When I interview Alan Campbell, it sounds to me as if he found the young Afghan army troubled and unsure. He says corruption was a “serious problem”.

“Corruption was big: money, pay, accountability for soldiers, accountability for weapons, accountability for sensitive items, vehicles, fuel, ammunition,” he continues.

“In the big picture, that’s a big problem.”

US officers have told us privately of equipment issued to Afghan units disappearing and US troops finding it on sale in the local markets.

They also told us about Afghan army vehicles that appear to get two miles to the gallon of fuel.

“Either there’s a leak in the tank, or that gas is disappearing,” said one officer.

“There are pockets of brilliance and we need to expand that”

read more »

As part of a push to create a cadre of muddy-boots diplomats ready to serve in conflict zones, the State Department is buying a fleet of fully armored vehicles — along with range of communications, first-aid gear and protective kit. The new equipment is supposed to help government civilians work where they are most needed: outside the protective bubble of the embassy.According to a recent post on Dipnote, the State Department’s official blog, the Civilian Response Corps — a newly created organization that has 50 active members, and another 200 on standby — will be receiving a fleet of 28 “fully armored vehicles” next year. “The vehicles will also be available for use by other U.S. Government employees supporting reconstruction and stabilization missions abroad,” the post says.

In addition, the Corps will receive additional gear to become more self-sufficient in the field: Medical kits, solar powered equipment rechargers, and office start-up kits. They will also have body armor, helmets and self-contained, solar-powered communications equipment packages to keep in touch with Foggy Bottom.

The Civilian Response Corps was created in response to the nation-building fiasco in Iraq and Afghanistan, where the U.S. military ended up shouldering much of the civilian reconstruction burden. Active personnel are trained to deploy within 48 hours; the standby corps is supposed to be available within 30 days. Civilian Response Corps members have served in Darfur and Colombia, although many have been tapped to fill billets on Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) as well.

It’s particularly interesting to watch the development of the Civilian Response Corps amid the kefluffle over Matthew Hoh, the State Department employee who publicly resigned in protest over the Afghan war. Diplomats predictably wailed that Hoh was “not a real Foreign Service Officer” because he had a limited, non-career appointment: The U.S. government has been rushing to fill civilian billets in Afghanistan with temporary hires because the State Department and other U.S. government agencies are not “right sized” to support the civilian component in counterinsurgency.

A comment by a Washington Post reader serving on a PRT is instructive:

Matt is a ‘3161′ State Department employee, a special category of temporary appointments brought on for 12 month assignments in certain areas of expertise– engineering, ag, business, rule of law, etc. Some may sign on for a second 12-month tour.This is a very different thing than being an FSO– a commissioned, career diplomat who is a generalist and is appointed not as a result of an online job application and single interview (sometimes over the phone), but after a series of competitive oral, written, and physical exams. Referring to Matt as a “U.S. Official” is about as accurate as referring to a postal employee as a U.S. official. The commenter adds: “I am not trying to denigrate 3161s or postal employees!” Um, no, but you are betraying a very acute brand of snobbery.

U.S. Quietly Speeds Aid for Pakistani Drives on Taliban (International Herald Tribune): “The U.S. has rushed hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of arms, equipment and sensors to Pakistani forces for the campaigns in Swat and South Waziristan.”

Boeing Offers Reborn OV-10: “Boeing is hoping that a counterinsurgency aircraft designed during the Vietnam War can be reborn to meet the U.S. Air Force’s growing irregular warfare requirements.

The company is offering an updated OV-10 Bronco to meet the Air Force’s Light Attack Armed Reconnaissance (LAAR) specification, and believes the design could perform some of the companion Light Mobility Aircraft’s (LiMA) requirements.

The proposed new-build OV-10(X) would stick close to the 1970s-vintage OV-10D aerodynamically and structurally to ensure its original military qualification remains valid, but would feature updated avionics, sensors and engines, says Dave Schweppe, business development director for Boeing’s global strike systems division

U.N. moves 600 foreign staffers in Afghanistan (New Haven Register): “Associated Press KABUL — The United Nations is sending about 600 foreign staff out of the country or into secure compounds because of the deadly Taliban attack on U.N. workers, warning the Afghan government Thursday that international support will wane unless it cracks down on corruption fueling the insurgency.”

The counterinsurgency guidance issued by Gen. Stan McChrystal to his units in the field has been finalized and released — and it’s very good. I would say it incorporates most of what the U.S. Army and Marine Corps have learned about counterinsurgency warfare over the past eight years and gives a good hint as to how Gen. McChrystal expects his subordinate units — U.S. and allied — to fight over the next 12-24 months. One thing that jumped out at me as being particularly important is the emphasis on partnering with the Afghan National Security Forces. Partnering is not the same thing as mentoring. Partnering means that you pair units together and do everything together: live, eat, train, plan, operate. This is a big change from the way we have engaged with the ANSF in the past and will require a shift in thought and deed among ISAF units and their commanders. Unless you are skeptical about counterinsurgency as a broader exercise, I think you will find this guidance to be smart, clearly explained, and worth reading yourself.

From Popular Science:

An enemy missile has no strategic value if its computer is down. A high-power-microwave emitter can disable a missile’s electronics on the launchpad, leaving bystanders unharmed — and now Texas Tech University engineers have a plan to scale down the truck-size tech.

To make strong microwaves, you need a lot of electricity, usually from a bulky generator. Instead the team packed small explosives into a five-foot-long, six-inch-wide tube. The detonation produces a burst of electrons, which power a microwave tube—similiar to the type in a microwave oven—that radiates microwaves.

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